A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
